A lot has been made of forecaster's predictions that Galveston's residents who don't evacuate would face "certain death" [kgbt4.com]. The thing is, that the storm was only measured to be a Category 2 hurricane [marketwatch.com].
In the wake of the storm, what are the lessons that we can learn from this experience? Clearly, despite the warnings, large numbers of residents did not choose to flee when warned, and are now requiring a massive search and rescue operation [usatoday.com].
How many of those residents chose to stay because Ike was only measured to be a Category 2 hurricane? In the grand scheme of things, a Category 2 hurricane doesn't sound that bad. Wikipedia's description of Category 2 [wikipedia.org] is the following:
Storms of this intensity damage some roofing material, and also produce damage to poorly constructed doors and windows. Considerable damage is caused to vegetation, poorly constructed signs, and piers. Mobile homes, whether anchored or not, are usually badly damaged, and many manufactured homes also suffer structural damage. Also, small craft in unprotected anchorages may break their moorings.That certainly contrasts with the warnings of certain death. That also contrasts with the windows that were blown out in skyscrapers all over Houston (assuming that those weren't "poorly constructed").
Maybe it is time that the classification of hurricane strength be revamped to more accurately show the expected damage, by taking into account additional factors and metrics. Clearly, these have already been defined, as forecasters knew that this hurricane was going to be devastating.
More pictures of Hurricane Ike damage on The Big Picture [boston.com].
Picture of Hurricane Ike's damage via Coast Guard News' Flickr photostream [flickr.com].
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